Total startup?
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net of TI allowance
What this business looks like
click to minimize
Plain-English story of what the model is showing under your current assumptions. Hover any ? for definitions of terms.
What-if explorer
Drag any slider to instantly see how the story and metrics change. Each slider directly edits the underlying input — changes persist if you save.
Cash YOU put in?
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on top of the loan
Break-even month?
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first month making money
Get money back?
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recover all your cash
Profit at steady state?
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after-tax monthly income
Annual return on $$$?
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annualized, after tax
Your money over 5 years
The line shows your cumulative cash position. The deepest dip below zero is the most cash you'll have tied up at once. When the line crosses back above zero, you've made back every dollar you put in. Milestone markers below show key events.
Risks & failure modes
Monthly profit / loss
Revenue
Costs
Net
Members growing over time
Members
Monthly recurring revenue
Where revenue comes from
stacked monthly contribution
Where the money goes (at plateau)
monthly cost breakdown
Compare scenarios Conservative / Base / Aggressive side-by-side
Each column runs the model with the preset's overrides on top of your current shared inputs (rent, construction, loan, etc.). Click a preset button in the header to load that column's inputs.
Glossary What do these terms actually mean?
- Plateau — the stable, mature state of your membership base. Like a gym that reaches a steady ~120 members where new signups roughly equal cancellations. In this model, plateau is hit around month 18. Most metrics are reported "at plateau" because that's the long-term steady state.
- Membership tiers — Four tiers modeled: Early Bird ($139, weekday daytime only), Standard ($219, full access), Premium ($299, priority booking + more reservations + 3-hr sessions), Night Owl ($89, overnight access only ~10pm–6am). Early Bird and Night Owl don't compete for peak slots, so they help capacity utilization without crowding members during prime time.
- Session length caps — Per-tier max booking duration. Standard / Early Bird / Night Owl are capped at 2 hrs (enough for solo practice, 2-player rounds, lessons). Premium gets 3-hr sessions — long enough for a 4-person round of 18 holes. This is one of the key "play with friends" upsell hooks that justifies the Premium price gap.
- Guest policy — Members can bring non-paying guests on their booking (1 for Standard / Early Bird / Night Owl, 3 for Premium). Default fee is $0 (free guests, like Melrose) to maximize organic referral. Tracked in booking software so frequent guests can be auto-emailed a trial offer. Adjustable to a small fee ($10–15) if you want guest revenue at the cost of referral friction — generally not recommended.
- MRR (Monthly Recurring Revenue) — predictable monthly subscription income from memberships. Not including drop-ins, lessons, or events. At plateau: ~$24K/mo.
- ARPU (Average Revenue Per User) — total monthly revenue divided by member count. Higher ARPU = each member is more valuable.
- Burn — money going out monthly before income. Your fixed costs: rent, utilities, insurance, software, marketing, etc.
- Drawdown / "deepest hole" — the lowest your bank account hits during the rough early months. Even after you turn profitable monthly, you might still be in the red overall because the early losses haven't been recovered yet.
- Break-even — the first month where revenue beats costs AND stays that way. You stop bleeding money monthly. (Doesn't mean you've made back what you spent — that's payback.)
- Payback — the month where cumulative profit equals the personal cash you put in. From here forward, every dollar is real return.
- Capital efficiency / ROI — annual return on your invested cash. 30% means $30 of profit per year for every $100 you put in. The S&P 500 averages ~10% historical for comparison.
- Peak-hour utilization — % of prime-time bay-hours (weekday 5–9pm + weekend mornings) that are booked. Over 70% = members start having trouble booking and may churn.
- Owner exposure — the most personal money you'll have tied up at any point. Different from "startup cost" because it includes the operating losses during the ramp.
- TI allowance — Tenant Improvement allowance. Cash the landlord contributes toward your buildout. Expressed in $/sqft. Subtracted from your startup costs.
- Rent abatement — free rent. Usually offered during buildout (when you're not operating yet). Sometimes a few months after opening if negotiated well.
- NNN / CAM — Common Area Maintenance fees. You pay the landlord for shared expenses (parking lot, landscaping, etc.) on top of base rent.
- Section 179 — tax provision letting you immediately deduct equipment + buildout in Year 1 instead of spreading depreciation over 5 years. Creates a Y1 tax shield.
All 24 detailed metrics Full diagnostic dashboard
Startup capital — line items Every line in your initial investment
Sensitivity analyses How outcomes change with assumptions
Payback month — by plateau size & ramp speed
Months until you recover all capital. Empty cells = doesn't pay back within horizon. Green <30 mo · amber 30–48 · red 48+.
Pricing power — plateau monthly profit at different prices
Varies Standard membership price (cols) × plateau members (rows). Other inputs constant.
Rent negotiation impact — plateau profit at different rent levels
Varies base monthly rent (rows) × loan amount drawn (cols). Use this to anchor lease negotiations.
Monthly projection table First 24 months, line-by-line
Market grounding — Westlawn (Veterans Pkwy) demographics
- 1-mile radius (immediate convenience market): 6,436 population, 2,045 households, median HHI $136,515, median age 35.1, 47.9% bachelor's+ degree. +9.2%/yr projected pop growth through 2028.
- 5-mile radius (drive-to market): 87,846 pop, 32,541 HH, median HHI $90,754, +3.0%/yr growth. 2,451 businesses within 5 miles = corporate event pool.
- Market interpretation: Exceptional for premium membership economics. Median HHI 1-mile is in the top ~5% of TN. Young professional/family-heavy supports partner add-ons.
- Market sizing: 0.5% household penetration of 5-mi = ~163 members. Plateau targets of 80 / 120 / 155 = 0.25% / 0.37% / 0.48% penetration.
Modeling notes & methodology
- Scenario presets — Conservative / Base / Aggressive buttons load different assumptions. Use them to bracket outcomes.
- Marketing ramp — base spend × 1.5× during ramp, tapering to 1× at plateau, then 0.7× post-plateau (retention mode).
- Partner add-ons — % of primary members add a partner at the add-on price. Modeled as additional MRR, not a separate member.
- Pre-opening loan interest — if you draw the loan at start of buildout, interest accrues for N months before revenue starts.
- Section 179 — immediately expenses equipment + buildout in Year 1 (federal limit $2.5M+ in 2026). Creates large Y1 tax loss that carries forward.
- Membership revenue is flat year-round. Lessons / events / drop-ins flex with seasonality (Oct–Mar peak for indoor golf) and ramp with membership maturity.
- Churn applied as a drag on net adds during ramp; at plateau, gross adds replace churned members exactly (steady state).
- All inputs save to localStorage. Refresh-safe.